We are proud to announce the launch of our new Scenario Planning Tool Scenarios360™ in September 2020. This online tool will complete our suite of innovation and growth tools — global key drivers via scenarios, and strategic initiatives with ideation360®, ideation management and change cultivation and implementation with InnoSurvey®, and skill assessment with InnoComp™. All of these powerful innovation management tools are now at your fingertips as accredited certified licensed practitioners in innovation management and growth.

Scenarios360™, a modern Scenario Planning Tool, is built upon the UK manual and the Shell Scenario toolkit for scenario analysis. Utilizing insight gained from PESTLED analysis, scenario planning helps to elaborate on different possibilities.

Innovation 360 uses a six-step process to assess scenarios

One: Identity possible issues linked to the driving force or forces raised by PESTLED analysis―no more than two to three for the sake of clarity.

Two: Specify a time frame―for instance, three years from now.

Three: Define two or three extreme potential outcomes within the given time frame. After combining the issues in all possible combinations, pinpoint a few interesting scenarios for deeper investigation.

Four: List all stakeholders involved in each scenario. Examine to understand their impact, as well as the impact of each force or forces upon them. For instance, the stakeholders could be future competitors or collaborators, and a force could be competition from new entrants.

Five: Work backward in order to understand possible plots or key drivers that may signal that a scenario is about to happen.

Six: Analyze the recommendations derived from each scenario. As time passes, these scenarios can be reiterated and adjusted as needed.

Let’s Work Through an Example Together

Imagine that you sit on the leadership team of a top-five executive jet rental company, such as Netjets or GlobeAir. Your profits depend upon maximizing asset usage, keeping low crew costs, and maximizing add-on express cargo.

This scenario plan is based on the following key global drivers:

• Elon Musk has launched a fleet of functional electric jets;
• The cost structure is estimated to be as low as $0.09 per seat mile, or $260 per hour;
• Ticket prices are one-third the current market rate, with an 80 percent reduction of emissions and noise; and
• Office-to-office time has been reduced by half.

One: Major players cannot compete on short-haul, but the new airline can’t handle all the demand. So, expect new entrants.

Two: Let’s look ahead three years, when regulatory hurdles may be worked out.

Three: An extreme, but not impossible scenario, is that combustion engines are outlawed due to environmental concerns.

Four: This section will be filled with your fantasy stakeholders, and it can be quite lengthy in a real scenario innovation plan.

Five: Work backward into partnerships, new business models, and/or liquidation plans.

Strategic Initiatives with Scenarios360™

With an understanding of PESTLED outcomes, organizations can explore the ways in which these findings will impact future strategy and the formation of strategic initiatives. Scenarios360™ enables incremental innovation by prioritizing Operational Strategic Initiatives (which need to be executed now) using Impact-Feasibility mapping, as well as ensuring optimal resource usage.

At the same time, Scenarios360™ enables radical innovation by producing Innovation Strategic Initiatives (which need to be explored).

Incremental and radical innovations can represent anything from services and products to business models and processes. However, even with strategic initiatives in place, you also need to understand your industry landscape and your aspirations and abilities for innovation and growth―thereby determining how to stay on top today, tomorrow, and beyond.

It is then time to collect ideas, test them through experiments, and scale up what’s working in an iterative innovation process, ultimately creating commercial success.

Sometimes, you can kick-start innovation and growth projects with key drivers, while other times you might start a renewal journey with just an ideation session.

With Innovation 360 and its extensive methodology support, you can always perfectly simulate your scenarios with full online and offline interactivity.